#11 · Evidence

Moneyball

An underfunded baseball team challenges decades of intuition with evidence everyone else dismisses.

EvidenceInnovationStrategySystems
87/100Andrew’s rating
When resources are constrained, better questions can outperform bigger budgets.

The big idea

Convention often survives because insiders share the same blind spots. Measurement creates advantage when it focuses on what produces the outcome rather than what merely looks impressive.

From “experts have always done it this way” to “what does the evidence say actually works?”

Three ways to use the idea.

  1. 01

    Define the outcome before selecting the metric.

  2. 02

    Find one undervalued input your competitors dismiss for cosmetic reasons.

  3. 03

    Run a small test that can disconfirm your favorite assumption.

Adapt or die.
Moneyball

Andrew recommends Moneyball because it treats analytical thinking as an operating advantage. It is about seeing value clearly when convention cannot.

Take the film with you.

  1. 1

    Which accepted practice survives without evidence?

  2. 2

    Am I measuring the outcome or the appearance of progress?

  3. 3

    What valuable thing is currently mispriced?